"Ukraine and EU countries will have a common energy market from 2028," the Committee Chair on Energy and Housing and Utilities Andrii Herus

Will the price of electricity decrease, will it be possible to avoid the scheduled outages during peak hours, and will the owners of rooftop solar panels be able to sell electricity to the EU?

Andrii Herus, Chair of the Committee on Energy, Housing and Utilities, clarified what the European integration law on the integration of the energy markets of Ukraine and the European Union (No. 4834-IX) will change for consumers.

— Recently, the President of Ukraine signed Law No. 4834-IX on the integration of the energy markets of Ukraine and the EU. How much time will it take for the law to be fully implemented?

— I think the implementation will span 2026-2027. We hope that in 2028 there will be a full market coupling. This will mean that integration of our and the EU markets. That is when the law will become fully operational in practice.

— Can we say that Ukraine implements the European electricity market standards in a more stringent manner than the EU itself?

— No, there are much more stringent requirements in Europe. In this law, on the contrary, there are more lenient rules, at least during the transition period.

Overall, the law aligns with European rules. However, it contains many provisions that will be implemented in several stages or solely during periods of crisis in the energy sector.

— Could the transition to a common energy market model with the EU serve as a safeguard against scheduled electricity outages in the context of damaged generation capacity and russian shelling?

— Including that. We are becoming part of a major European market: the import procedure is being simplified, allowing us to import more. Consequently, electricity deficits will be smaller.

Therefore, in the event of generation issues, we will experience fewer outages, as a portion of the electricity for end consumers can be covered by imports from the EU. Ukraine is already able to purchase electricity from the EU. However, this currently involves auctions, sourcing suppliers, and complex procedures. The law allows us to simplify, accelerate, and automate this process. From 2028, we will be able to import electricity on a next-day basis if needed. Today, there is a time lag, as import procedures take up to several days.

— The Law, in particular, is aimed at establishing a competitive environment in the energy market. How will the hypothetical  appearance of new suppliers change the situation in the energy market? 

— Once the law comes into force, the Ukrainian market will also become accessible to European companies. For the EU producers it will be easier to supply energy to us. Consequently, the number of suppliers and offers will grow. With the entry of a larger number of sellers, the role, leverage, and market power of major players will diminish. The end consumer always benefits from market competition.

— In other words, can we expect that the emergence of a large number of power-generating companies in Ukraine will lead to a decrease in electricity tariffs for households?

— Electricity tariffs for households are established by government decree. Currently, this is more about the impact on the wholesale market and the price of electricity for non-residential consumers who pay the full market rate. These include plants, factories, industry, electric public transit, schools, hospitals, kindergartens, water utilities, district heating companies, and so on.

Ultimately, it affects everything the population utilizes. If electricity for electric transport becomes cheaper, then ticket prices for citizens will decrease accordingly.

It is a similar story with water utilities, where electricity accounts for 40% of the prime cost. This will not directly impact household tariffs, but citizens will be able to see the changes in the cost of production and the final prices of goods and services.

— When we speak of reducing electricity tariffs for schools and hospitals, will it become clearer where exactly they save the most and where they spend? Will billing information become more transparent for them?

— Yes, if we are speaking of non-residential consumers, hourly wholesale prices will be viewable on the market operator’s website. During the day, this price could drop to zero, while in the evening, it could reach 14 UAH per kWh.

It will be possible to see the rates currently in effect in European countries and draw comparisons. For instance, our prices occasionally spike due to electricity deficits. However, they should not be higher than those in European countries. It is worth monitoring, comparing, and drawing conclusions.

— The Law provides for the abolition of price caps as of May 1, 2027. At the same time, they were initially introduced to prevent sharp price spikes and market manipulation.

—  This date was not chosen by chance. The fact is that May is a surplus month: heating has already been turned off, but it is still too early to turn on air conditioning. Under such conditions, consumption is low while generation is high, particularly solar and hydropower. Therefore, there will be no price spikes in May and June.

Risks are always present. The greatest of these is winter. However, the law contains a protective mechanism in the event of an emergency state in the Ukrainian energy sector.

For instance, if a sharp electricity deficit arises in Ukraine, the regulator—NEURC—has the right to apply price caps to prevent anomalous price spikes.

Another safeguard against abuse is the so-called REMIT law, which is aimed at countering the manipulation of market power. This is also a European integration law, under which NEURC can respond to price surges.

—Could it turn out that following the abolition of price caps, Ukrainians will be paying 'European prices' without having European salaries?

— It is a myth that electricity prices in Europe are higher than in Ukraine. In most months of 2025, prices were actually higher in Ukraine than in European countries.

A significant amount of green generation is being built in Europe, so there is actually a downward trend in prices there, especially during the spring and summer months.

It is highly likely that as a result of market integration, the implementation of European rules, and increased competition, prices in Ukraine may move downward rather than upward.

— And if electricity prices in Europe rise, will that automatically mean more expensive power for Ukrainians?

— If power prices rise in the EU and our domestic generation is insufficient, then electricity in Ukraine may increase in cost slightly.

That is generally how markets operate. We cannot know what will happen in the coming years. However, if the situation mirrors that of the last 12 months in Europe, our prices will most likely decrease gradually.

— Additionally, at the beginning of 2026, Europe set a record for the number of hours with negative prices due to a generation surplus from renewable sources. Could Ukraine also experience these negative prices, or at least significant price reductions?

—It certainly could. For instance, on Christmas or Easter, this is also entirely possible for non-residential consumers in Ukraine.

In Europe, negative prices occur during specific hours. For example, during weekends in April or May, when plants and factories are shut down, air conditioners are not yet turned on, and it is sunny outside with temperatures around +20 °C.

People are resting on these days, so consumption is low while solar generation is high. Negative electricity prices can form during such hours. I believe this will happen in Ukraine as well.

When negative prices emerge, they will average out the overall rate. Consequently, the daily price of power will be lower.

Previously, the regulator set price floors. It regulated the market in such a way that the price could not even drop to zero, let alone venture into negative territory.

— Will the new law help to attract investments for the development and recovery of the Ukrainian generation?

— I believe that we will be able to attract investments because this is not only about European electricity and suppliers. Ukrainian energy players will likewise become full-fledged participants in the European energy market.

While today this electricity is mostly sold within Ukraine, following the implementation of the Law, it will be eligible for sale to European countries. Moreover, this does not apply solely to neighboring countries; it can be sold to the Balkans, Belgium, or Italy.

New export opportunities will open up before us, from which Ukrainian energy companies only stand to benefit. Furthermore, we possess the capabilities and excellent climatic conditions to build green generation, backed by favorable legislation that incentivizes investment. New investors can enter our energy sector, construct energy facilities, and export electricity to EU countries.

— The law provides that consumers will be able to sell surplus electricity through a self-generation mechanism. How will owners of rooftop solar panels on private residences be able to generate income from selling electricity once the law on energy market integration takes effect?

— Consumers can unite into energy cooperatives and sell electricity collectively. These may include dacha or gardening associations, industrial parks, and the like. With the implementation of the Law, electricity aggregators are also likely to begin operating. For instance, they could pool capacities of 100–200 kW and sell this electricity on the market.

Ukraine has a fairly large number of household solar power plants with capacities up to 30 kW. As of 2026, if I am not mistaken, some 60,000 or even 70,000 households have installed solar panels on their homes and signed up for the feed-in tariff.

— What will change following the transition to the European market model for households with solar panels that are accustomed to the fixed conditions of the feed-in tariff?
 — t is stipulated that the feed-in tariff will expire on January 1, 2030. This has been known for a long time. Everyone understands this and invests based on the current rules.

— And if an ordinary person installs solar panels, will they be able to sell electricity to Europe under the new law?
 — Yes, electricity from a consumer—even a small household—can be exported to Europe. However, in all likelihood, this will not be handled by the owner themselves, but rather by more professional market participants.

For example, if you grow 2 kg of strawberries, you will most likely just eat them. Theoretically, you could go to the nearest local market and sell them, but would you really transport those 2 kg to sell in Poland?

Now, let us imagine that you grow potatoes on two hectares and have harvested several tons. You can sell them to a buyer who arrives with a large truck, purchases potatoes from you and your neighbors, aggregates the required volume, and exports the produce to Poland.

Something similar could happen with electricity. When aggregators—professional market participants—emerge, they will be able to buy up your surplus electricity, bundle it into volumes suitable for industrial-scale export, and sell it, for example, to Poland.

— Today, people install solar panels counting on their return on investment. Do they not risk losing a part of their income due to the new market rules?

— This is always a bit of a dilemma: either electricity is more expensive and prices are higher—allowing solar panel owners to earn more—or prices are lower, meaning all Ukrainians pay less for electricity, but the earnings of market participants are also reduced. It is essential to strike a fair balance.

This balance can be found through an equitable market driven by competition, the balance of supply and demand, and prices determined by the market itself.

First, the feed-in tariff is currently active for households, and the majority utilize exactly that. Second, most households consume the generated electricity for their own needs rather than selling it to the market. Often, this is more cost-effective.

True, over time, earnings from solar panels may decrease if the market price trends downward.

However, in that case, energy storage systems—so-called energy storage units or batteries—can be paired with solar panels.

Under such circumstances, individuals will care less about mid-day market prices because they will not be selling this electricity.

Instead, they will store electricity during the day and consume it for their own needs in the evening rather than drawing it from the grid. After all, ensuring self-sufficiency in electricity is currently priority number one.